The Ashes 3rd Test Match Prediction: England versus Australia. Who Will Win?

The first Test of the The Ashes was full of drama and entertainment, and the second Test carried on where that left off. England looked dead and buried on the final day when the Australians, unsurprisingly so, went against the spirit of the game and ran Jonny Bairstow out when he was walking down the pitch to speak to Ben Stokes. This ignited a fire in Stokes, and he went on to smash a stunning 155 to give England fans hope. However, they fell 43 runs short as the Aussies took a 2-0 lead. The third Test starts on the 6th at Headingley, Leeds, and those wanting to do any cricket betting on this match should take some time to read our cricket match prediction first.

England Team Preview

Not long after the match had ended on Sunday, England announced that they had dropped Matty Potts and Rehan Ahmed from their squad for the Test at Headingley. After two gruelling Test matches in quick succession and just a three-day break before the next one, it is certain that England will make some changes to their playing XI.

Jimmy Anderson, despite bowling economically, struggled to pick up wickets in the first two Tests, so we think that the 40-year-old will be rested, and replaced with Mark Wood, who is England's quickest bowler by some distance. Moeen Ali missed out on the second Test with an injured spinning finger, but it is likely that he will be in contention to play at Leeds.

Personally, we would include Chris Woakes, who has a great record in England, at Ali's expense, as Headingley should suit his bowling more, and he is very handy with the bat. Joe Root has consistently shown that he is a very capable spin bowler, so if spin is needed, Stokes can turn to him. Below are three England players to look out for in the Third test:

Josh Tongue: He showed at Lord's that he has what it takes to compete at this level, and his extra pace is something that England can definitely make use of. In the second Test he picked up the important wickets of Usman Khawaja, Steve Smith (2x), and David Warner (2x), and definitely deserves to keep his place.

Mark Wood: The Aussie bowling attack has multiple bowlers that can consistently hit speeds of 90 mph, which is not the case with the English attack. Wood is a rare breed in England, and it is always exciting to watch him run in and bowl at high speeds. However, he has had many injury issues over the years, so the main question is whether his body can last the five days.

Ben Stokes: Who can forget Stokes's 135 not out at Headingley in the 2019 Ashes? When Jack Leach strolled to the crease as England's last batsman, England still needed 73 to win the match, and Stokes went on to smash 72 of those runs to keep the Ashes series alive. It will forever be remembered as one of the best Test match cricket centuries of all time. With a 2-0 deficit, England might need another staggering innings from Stokes to keep their Ashes dreams alive.

Our predicted England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Bairstow, Woakes, Wood, Broad, Tongue.

Australia Team Preview

Australia will head to Headingley not entirely sure how it is that they are winning the series 2-0. A win in Leeds will see them win an Ashes series in England for the first time in 22 years. The Aussies are yet to name their squad for the Third Test, but there will be one enforced change to it.

Nathan Lyon, one of the best spinners in the world, picked up a nasty calf tear while fielding in the deep, and has been ruled out of the remaining three matches. If they decide that they want a specialised spinner in their XI, then it is likely that Todd Murphy, who has played just four Test matches, will be given his Ashes debut. Let us have a look at three Aussies to keep an eye on up in Leeds:

Todd murphy: Stepping in for someone who has close to 500 Test wickets under his belt is no easy task, so it will be interesting to see how he performs against an England batting lineup that is likely to go hard at him. However, they should give him some respect because picked up seven wickets on debut against India, which shows that he clearly has a bit about him.

Usman Khawaja: He has been a thorn in England's side and is the leading run scorer in the series so far with 300 runs to his name at an average of 75.00. He has scored one century and two half-centuries in his four innings, and England will be hoping that he is dismissed quickly at Headingley.

Steve Smith: The ex-Australian captain missed out at Edgbaston, and we all knew that this would not be the case at Lord's. He scored a fantastic century in very difficult conditions to help set the match up for his country, earning himself the Player of the Match award. He seems to love playing against England, so the England bowling attack will be trying to come up with some new plans to get him back in the shed early in the Third test. It will be a fascinating battle to watch.

Our predicted Australia XI: Khawaja, Warner, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Murphy, Hazlewood.

Toss Prediction

Usually winning the toss gives a team a good advantage over their opponents, but losing the toss at Headingley might be a bit of a blessing in disguise. Out of the 80 Test matches that have been played on this ground, the team that has lost the toss has gone on to win 40% of the time, while the team that has won the toss has won 37.5% of the time. When it comes to toss betting on The Ashes, we think that the team that wins the toss will opt to bowl first as history shows that the team batting second has won on more occasions than the team batting first.

Pitch Conditions

The Headingley pitch has always been one that bowlers have enjoyed playing on, with the average runs per wicket being just 29.59 and the average runs per over being 2.85. With the way that England have been playing lately, it is likely that they are going to try and increase that average a bit. Seam bowlers average at little under 30.00 on this pitch, and pick up a wicket every 55-56 balls, while spin has also proven to be useful on this wicket, averaging 32.13 and striking every 61-62 balls.

The average score when batting first at Headingley is 304, so while it is a good place to bowl, batsmen can still score runs if they apply themselves properly. The team that bats first will look to score at least 350-360 runs to put their opponents under an immense amount of scoreboard pressure.

Our Match Prediction

So, if you are going to be making use of markets and odds at betting sites for cricket, who do we recommend that you bet on for this third Test of the series? Well, the first two matches could have gone either way, and since these two teams are pretty evenly matches, we think that this will be another close contest. However, Australia have come out on top in a number of key moments, and with the momentum that they have, we believe that they will also go on to win this Test and wrap up the series, retaining the urn in the process.

Our match prediction: Australia to win.